losing record, winning bankroll. Why keep making those lower unit bets?

[jasonthebeaver]

I’ve noticed several cappers on this forum that have an overall losing record when it comes to picking games, but they are ahead in units. I don't mean short runs of a few games, I'm talking over a long haul. Look at Puckhandler's record for example:

<table id="post7762555" class="tborder" width="100%" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="6" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td class="thead" style="font-weight: normal; border-width: 1px 0px 1px 1px; border-style: solid none solid solid; border-color: rgb(253, 222, 130) -moz-use-text-color rgb(253, 222, 130) rgb(253, 222, 130);">

03-31-2010, 08:44 PM <!-- / status icon and date --> </td> <td class="thead" style="font-weight: normal; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 0px; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: rgb(253, 222, 130) rgb(253, 222, 130) rgb(253, 222, 130) -moz-use-text-color;" align="right"> #183 </td> </tr> <tr valign="top"> <td class="alt2" style="border-width: 0px 1px; border-style: none solid; border-color: -moz-use-text-color rgb(253, 222, 130);" width="175"> Puckhandler <script type="text/javascript"> vbmenu_register("postmenu_7762555", true); </script>
Winnipeg Jets forever



Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Winnipeg, Canada
Posts: 5,689


</td> <td class="alt1" id="td_post_7762555" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(253, 222, 130);"> <!-- icon and title -->

<hr style="color: rgb(253, 222, 130); background-color: rgb(253, 222, 130);" size="1"> <!-- / icon and title --> <!-- message --> 2-1 +68 Wed
ytd 230-263 +12249
<!-- / message --> </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="alt2" style="border-width: 0px 1px 1px; border-style: none solid solid; border-color: -moz-use-text-color rgb(253, 222, 130) rgb(253, 222, 130);">

</td> <td class="alt1" style="border-width: 0px 1px 1px 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color rgb(253, 222, 130) rgb(253, 222, 130) -moz-use-text-color;" align="right"> <!-- controls --> </td></tr></tbody></table>Obviously this occurs when they vary their betting amounts based on how strongly they feeling towards any given bet right?
For example here are three hypothetical picks for any given day:
Celtics +9 ½ - 5 units (WIN +4.55 units)
Heat +2 - 2 units (LOSE -2 units)
T’wolves -4 - 1 unit (LOSE -1 unit)
<o> </o>
In this scenario, the capper with the losing record but winning bankroll will usually win the Celtics for +4.55 units but lose the Heat & Wolves for -3 units for a net gain of +1.55 units that day.
Here’s my question; when a capper has proven this to himself, WHY DOES HE KEEP MAKING THOSE LOWER UNIT PICKS? He’s proven that he can pick winners because he knows to bet more on them.
Any feedback on this? Am I missing something?

 

[jasonthebeaver]

I may have discovered the answer to my question. I suppose if a capper is winning ml dogs then he could still have a losing record and a winning bankroll. The same as if you bet only ml favorites and had a winning record but a losing bankroll. Ah, I see the light flickering on! lol I was thinking only of point spread bets with -110 vig.

 

[oldmanTED]

jasonthebeaver

First of all welcome to the RX. One thing to keep in mind when looking at any handicapper is that you are looking at a snap shot (i.e. one current season) of an individual's record. Over a lifetime, their record may very well be much different as they varied the amount played on their games and have found it to be in their best interest in the long run to play as they are presenting it here for them.

 

[gynecologist]

ML dogs is the answer

 

[jasonthebeaver]

ML dogs is the answer

Thanks, it's all clear now. Sometimes burrying my head too deep in a mathematical problem... then I take a break and BING! the answer hits me like a 2x4 to the back of the head.